Showing posts with label psi research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label psi research. Show all posts

Monday, June 20, 2011

Review by skeptic Gerald Woerlee of Chris Carter book Science and the Near-Death Experience, and Chris Carter's reply

Anesthesiologist and skeptic Gerald Woerlee wrote a critical Amazon review of Chris Carter's lastest book Science and the Near-Death Experience. I'll post here Woerlee's whole review (in black) and Chris's extensive reply to him (in blue). I'd suggest my readers to read Chris's book before you examine Woerlee's criticisms and Chris' refutations of them, in order to get a full grasp of what this debate is all about.

Gerald Woerlee's review:

Yesterday I purchased the Kindle version of "Science and the Near-Death Experience" written by Chris Carter. Was the $13.79 I paid Amazon for this book well spent? The answer to this question is a qualified yes and no.

Yes, because I do not begrudge anyone who entertains me for a few hours his just wage. No, because although this book contains several interesting arguments, it is little more than populist fodder for believers in the apparent reality of the NDE. First the complements, because I was always taught to be polite in an introduction.

Complement 1: The book is easy and quickly read. Nothing difficult.

Complement 2: The analogy of the brain and the television or radio receiver is very good, and raises many interesting discussion points. I like it. It is somewhat better than my analogy of a driver in an automobile which I used in a book called "Mortal Minds".

Complement 3: A very good discussion of transcultural differences in NDE visionary content. Nice graphical material. This reveals profound intercultural and neurophysiological differences between peoples of different cultures. What a shame that an elementary scientific Chi-square analysis was not performed on these interesting data.

But there are many, many disturbing points in the book totally destroying the pretence of any scientific credibility. I will reference these using the Kindle locations for convenience of reference (e.g. Kindle location 555 is termed K555).

We read that: "The theory of production is therefore not a jot more simple or credible in itself than any other conceivable theory. It is only a little more popular."(K555). Does the author mean to tell us that materialism is more popular than dualism? Strange... Studies show that about 70% of people believe the soul is the source of consciousness. Dualism is actually more popular. Skeptical materialists such as I are a minority group.

At location K569 he states that the physical brain filters consciousness. This is an imprecise and sloppy statement, because as with many such books, this work by Chris Carter does not clarify whether he is actually talking about "mind" or "consciousness". Mind and consciousness are precise and different neurological concepts. So what actually happens?

- The brain filters sensory inputs, otherwise it would be flooded by neural noise etc. This is the well known effect of LSD. LSD blocks the sensory input filtering actions of the geniculate bodies in the brain for sound and vision, giving rise to the typical LSD trip. Moreover, it is not consciousness that is filtered, but sensory inputs. Consciousness makes it possible to perceive and be aware of sensations arising from these inputs.
- The brain does modulate the level of consciousness, but does not filter it. For example, a person may be sleepy, i.e have reduced consciousness, but have normal mental function.
- Properties of mind, such as enhanced mentation, memory, personality, etc are properties of "mind", not consciousness. Consciousness makes these properties of mind possible. There is no mind without consciousness. And the brain does filter or modify these properties of mind, eg a person may be fully conscious, but delerious due to the effects of drugs and disease upon the brain.

This brings us to the matter of enhanced mental processes reported by NDE-ers. At location K4162, just as throughout this book, he says that materialism cannot explain the phenomenon of enhanced conscious awareness. But no figures are presented telling us that enhanced conscious awareness occurs in between 19% (Lommel 2001) to 75% (Jeffrey Long 2010) of NDE experiences, (depending upon definition and type of NDE study). This means it is in no way a universal feature of NDEs. Therefore to call this a true manifestation of the unfettered conscious mind is poor logic.

Chapters 5 and 6 discuss how memory is a function of the immaterial conscious mind. Carter treats us to a very superficial discussion of the neurophysiology of memory, richly larded with quotes from (mostly aged or dead) prominent figures, who say they do not understand how memory is stored in the brain. Finally he invokes the very unproven "morphic fields" of Sheldrake to "prove" that memory is extracorporeal. He ends with the almost triumphant statement: "... the theory of memory traces has become a metaphysical theory, and the theory of formative causation, with its notion of extracerebral memories, is the remaining scientific alternative!"(K1854). Carter uses an unproven theory as proof of the location of memories to counter a materialist theory which has considerable modern neurophysiological proof. Curious, but understandable when writing for believers with preconceived ideas.

Quantum mechanics is often invoked as an explanation for anything not understood by all believers in the immaterial nature of the conscious mind. The reasoning apparently goes; "If you cannot explain it, throw in some quantum mechanical magic." This book is no exception. My only reaction is a weary sigh. While some phenomena similar to quantum entanglement do occur in macromolecular systems, (see June 2011 edition of Scientific American), this does not mean that quantum mechanics as understood by NDE-ite believers is the explanation for NDE and other apparently inexplicable phenomena. Nearly all physicists knowledgable in this field have to work hard at suppressing impolite hysterical laughter when presented with the ideas of believers in the quantum mechanical nature of the NDE.

The discussion of the materialistic versus the dualistic origins of the NDE is quite conventional NDE literature. Essentially nothing fundamentally new is presented. The same tired old and discredited arguments are used. No really fundamental questions are asked, nor are any really theories enabling new research presented. The level is on par with that of the uncritical belief systems presented in the books written by Jeffery Long, Pim van Lommel, Mario Beauregard, etc, and subject to the same criticisms.

Now for a last few other curious specific points regarding the suggestive and tendentious presentation of several specific NDEs:

At K2824, a sentence states that patients can "sometimes elect to undergo cardioversion,..." What nonsense! The cardiologist determines which treatment is the best for the patient. After all, that is his/her expertise.

At K3873 is a strange sentence written by Pim van Lommel, a cardiologist. The man of the "missing dentures" case was discharged from hospital after having been resuscitated from a cardiac arrest caused by a myocardial infarction. Here we read the cardiologically nonsensical sentence: "4 weeks later he left the hospital as a healthy man." A person who has had a large myocardial infarction has a scarred and damaged heart. The reason for such a heart infarct is coronary artery disease, and the fact that this man had an infarct and died two years after admission is proof that this was very likely the cause. So this man was far from healthy at discharge. A very curious statement for a cardiologist to make, and even more so after a decade of uncritical acceptance of this statement. The missing dentures story related in the 2001 article by Pim van Lommel was far from complete. It was even very biased and suggestive. A link to the true primary account of this story is to be found at my website together with an explanation of this apparently extraordinary account. I also wrote an extensive article on this very subject published in the Summer 2010 "Journal of Near-death Studies".

K4463, relates the end of the story of the well-known deathbed vision of a woman dying in the Mother's Hospital, London, England during 1926. This is a story I happen to know a lot about, because during 1978-1979, I was an anesthesiology resident who worked at this very same hospital. At the time I worked there, it was relatively unchanged from its form and function in 1926. It was still a Salvation Army run hospital, originally set up for the poor and deprived women living in the area. This woman was dying of heart failure. A common enough event at the time in poverty stricken areas of London such as Clapton where this hospital was located. Presumably this was the end-result of rheumatic heart disease which was prevalent at the time. And then Chris Carter tells us something really surprising; "Apparently the young woman 'saw' something she found so appealing that she was willing to give up her life and her own baby!" (K4463). Really... So it appears this woman had the choice of not dying. Interesting .... Mind over matter, miraculous cure of your own heart failure! Please don't tell the patients in my hospital that they can choose not to die or be sick, otherwise I'll be out of work!

Then we come to the well known Pam Reynolds case. I have written several articles on this case since 2004, and have extensively explained each aspect of the very good report in the chapter of "Light and Death" by Michael Sabom on one of my sites (see [...]). Carter, among others talks about the impossibility of hearing when the 100 dB clicks were administered, and says in the same sentence that prolonged administration of sound at this level causes hearing damage (K4028). And Chris Carter gives an appropriately "scientific" reference for this wisdom - the Toronto Globe and Mail newspaper. Apparently the treating physicians of Pam Reynolds were intent upon damaging her hearing by administering 100 dB sounds at this level during a prolonged neurosurgical procedure! He quite correctly states that Pam Reynolds made absolutely no mention of hearing these clicks (K4041). But just as many others before him, Carter ignores the basic stimulus parameters of the clicking sounds, as well as the nature of the consequent auditory evoked response signal (which facts actually reveal how she could hear sounds). Instead he, as have many others have before him, seems to liken this sound to a continuous 100 dB sound such as music. But these clicks are not the same as music, and the report of Pam Reynolds clearly tells us she could hear. She awoke to the sound of a "natural D" (K3930). Pam was a musician, and many such persons have natural pitch. So by saying it was a "natural D", she meant a sound with a frequency of 293.6, or 587.3 Hertz. This fact together with the stimulus parameters reveals how she could hear the sounds of speech etc (I will write an article on this for the JNDS if they are interested).

Then a last bit of nit-picking. At K4675, Chris Carter ends the description of another seemingly remarkable case study with the words: "The skeptic must say that the dying person telepathically or clairvoyantly gains true information about a recently deceased friend or relative, ..." I find this a remarkable statement. A skeptic with even a basic knowledge of body structure and function also rejects belief in telepathy and clairvoyance. These are paranormal sensory abilities which the experiences of the blind, the deaf, and gambling casinos teach us simply do not exist.

Concluding this rather lengthy commentary, all I can say is that this book only possesses the three redeeming aspects I mentioned at the start. Carter is preaching to his own parish, because there is disappointingly little true science to be found in this book. The "science" in the title is at the same level as the "science" in the title of other "scientific" studies of the near-death experience written by Jeffrey Long (Evidence of the Afterlife: The Science of Near-Death Experiences), and Pim van Lommel (Consciousness Beyond Life: The Science of the Near-Death Experience), Mario Beauregard (The Spiritual Brain: A Neuroscientist's Case for the Existence of the Soul). "Science and the Near-Death Experience" is a book guaranteed to warm the hearts, and fuel the beliefs of the unknowing and uncritical, but no more than this.

Chris Carter's reply to Woerlee:

I would like to thank Gerry for reviewing my book; the opportunity to respond provides me with the opportunity to clear up several mistakes and misconceptions that he has been busy trying to spread among those new to the field.

Following Gerry's example, I will be polite in my introduction, and start with a compliment: unlike many of his fellow "skeptics", Gerry appears to have actually read my book before reviewing it. This is commendable behavior.

However, Gerry appears to have understood little of what he read. I will deal with his criticisms in the order in which they appear in his review.

Gerry wrote:

"We read that: `The theory of production is therefore not a jot more simple or credible in itself than any other conceivable theory. It is only a little more popular.'(K555). Does the author mean to tell us that materialism is more popular than dualism? Strange... Studies show that about 70% of people believe the soul is the source of consciousness. Dualism is actually more popular. Skeptical materialists such as I are a minority group." [emphasis added]

The surprising words above are "Does the author mean to tell us...". If Gerry had read that passage with any degree of care, he would have easily realized that the words are not my own, but come from a quote from the celebrated philosopher-psychologist William James, from his famous Ingersoll Lecture of 1898. The full quote is:

"The theory of production is therefore not a jot more simple or credible in itself than any other conceivable theory. It is only a little more popular. All that one need do, therefore, if the ordinary materialist should challenge one to explain how the brain can be an organ for limiting and determining to a certain form a consciousness elsewhere produced, is to ask him in turn to explain how it can be an organ for producing consciousness out of whole cloth. For polemic purposes, the two theories are thus exactly on a par."

As James mentioned, the theory that the mind produced the brain was probably "a little more popular" among scientists in 1898, in the days before modern physics when most working scientists were still under the sway of classical physics, which we know today to be grossly incorrect. Gerry is correct though, in pointing out that today "skeptical materialists" are a minority group, and this seems to be true not only among the general public, but also among physical scientists as well as modern consciousness researchers. (Evans, 1973; Wagner, 1979; Whitehead, 2004, p. 70)

Gerry wrote:

"At location K569 he states that the physical brain filters consciousness. This is an imprecise and sloppy statement ... The brain filters sensory inputs, otherwise it would be flooded by neural noise etc ... Moreover, it is not consciousness that is filtered, but sensory inputs. ... The brain does modulate the level of consciousness, but does not filter it. For example, a person may be sleepy, i.e have reduced consciousness, but have normal mental function.
- Properties of mind, such as enhanced mentation, memory, personality, etc are properties of "mind", not consciousness. Consciousness makes these properties of mind possible. There is no mind without consciousness. And the brain does filter or modify these properties of mind, eg a person may be fully conscious, but delerious [sic] due to the effects of drugs and disease upon the brain."

Some may consider the above to be simply splitting hairs over definitions, but I consider the remarks simply wrong. It is true that the brain filters perceptions, as illustrated by the fact that a mother, sleeping in a room filled with noise from traffic outside, may be suddenly awakened from deep sleep by a cry from her baby. But functions and properties of the mind - such as memories, thoughts, and clarity of thought - may also be blocked or reduced by the filtering effect of brain upon consciousness.

Gerry wrote in the above that "a person may be sleepy, i.e have reduced consciousness, but have normal mental function" and "a person may be fully conscious, but delirious due to the effects of drugs and disease upon the brain."

Does he really believe that a sleep-deprived driver can "have normal mental function" and that a disoriented drunk or a person with dementia "may be fully conscious"? One shudders at the implications of taking these statements seriously.


In my book I quote from several philosophers in support of the view that the brain works as a filter. For instance, in Aldous Huxley's book The Doors of Perception, Huxley describes and reflects on his experiences with the drug mescaline, experiences that led him to the view that the role of the brain and nervous system is eliminative rather than productive. Like Bergson and Schiller before him, Huxley came to accept the theory that the brain functions as a sort of two-way filter, normally shutting out perceptions, memories, and thoughts not necessary for the survival and reproduction of the organism.

In support of these ideas in my book I mention cases of terminal lucidity, in which dying patients suffering from severe mental illness or a brain disease suddenly seem to regain full consciousness and lucidity, becoming their normal selves again shortly before death. Such cases make perfect sense if the purpose of the brain is to selectively inhibit consciousness and memory to those thoughts and memories of utilitarian value to the organism. These experiences can be interpreted as the activity of mind disengaged, or in the process of disengaging, from the restrictions of a material brain. (those interested in a detailed examination of several such cases should see the article listed below by evolutionary biologist Michael Nahm).

As astronomer David Darling puts it, "we are conscious not because of our brain, but in spite of it."


Gerry writes:

"This brings us to the matter of enhanced mental processes reported by NDE-ers. At location K4162, just as throughout this book, he says that materialism cannot explain the phenomenon of enhanced conscious awareness. But no figures are presented telling us that enhanced conscious awareness occurs in between 19% (Lommel 2001) to 75% (Jeffrey Long 2010) of NDE experiences, (depending upon definition and type of NDE study). This means it is in no way a universal feature of NDEs. Therefore to call this a true manifestation of the unfettered conscious mind is poor logic."

The fact that enhanced mental processes are not reported by all NDE'rs does not imply that materialism can explain the phenomenon of enhanced conscious awareness. Accurate out-of-body perception is not reported by all NDE'rs either; but concluding from this fact that this feature is not a true manifestation of the unfettered conscious mind is poor logic indeed.

Gerry writes:

"Carter treats us to a very superficial discussion of the neurophysiology of memory, richly larded with quotes from (mostly aged or dead) prominent figures, who say they do not understand how memory is stored in the brain."

This is disingenuous sophistry: in my "superficial discussion" neuroscientists are not quoted as merely saying that "they do not understand how memory is stored in the brain." Rather, they say that from experiments with animals they can find no evidence of memory traces in the brain, leading one researcher to the untestable conclusion that "memory seems to be stored both everywhere and nowhere in particular."

Gerry continues:

"Finally he invokes the very unproven "morphic fields" of Sheldrake to "prove" that memory is extracorporeal. He ends with the almost triumphant statement: "... the theory of memory traces has become a metaphysical theory, and the theory of formative causation, with its notion of extracerebral memories, is the remaining scientific alternative!"(K1854). Carter uses an unproven theory as proof of the location of memories to counter a materialist theory which has considerable modern neurophysiological proof. Curious, but understandable when writing for believers with preconceived ideas."

If Gerry understood the nature of science, he would know that scientific theories can never be proven correct, yet a single counter-instance can prove them false. For example, the (simple) scientific theory "all swans are white" can never be proven true; neither ten nor ten thousand white swans logically implies that the next swan we see will be white. However, a single black swan logically proves the theory false.

The utter failure to locate the storage site of memories in the brain has lead to the assumption that "memory is stored everywhere in the brain and nowhere in particular," thereby rendering the theory of memory traces untestable and hence unscientific. By contrast, I mention several easily testable - and to some extent already tested - predictions of Sheldrake's theory of morphic fields. This is what I meant when I wrote that Sheldrake's testable theory is the remaining scientific alternative.

Note that contrary to Gerry, the materialist theory does not have "considerable modern neurophysiological proof"; rather, in the continuing absence of any direct evidence, it remains more a matter of faith than of fact.

Gerry writes:

"Quantum mechanics is often invoked as an explanation for anything not understood by all believers in the immaterial nature of the conscious mind. The reasoning apparently goes; `If you cannot explain it, throw in some quantum mechanical magic.' This book is no exception. My only reaction is a weary sigh." Then, without a shred of evidence, he adds "Nearly all physicists knowledgeable in this field have to work hard at suppressing impolite hysterical laughter when presented with the ideas of believers in the quantum mechanical nature of the NDE."

In the first place, in my chapter on "Physics and Consciousness" I do not "throw in some quantum mechanical magic" to promote the "quantum mechanical nature of the NDE." Instead, I take great pains to explain in detail how the 18th century scientific case for the ancient philosophy of materialism was based upon the classical physics of Isaac Newton. This theory has been known to be fundamentally and grossly incorrect since the earliest years of the twentieth century, and so any materialist theory based upon it must also be fundamentally flawed.

Classical physics has been superseded by the quantum theory, and in my chapter I discuss the famous interpretation of quantum mechanics developed by mathematician John von Neumann and physicist Eugene Wigner. Von Neumann was one of the most important intellectual figures of the twentieth century, and his friend Eugene Wigner was awarded the Nobel prize for his work in physics. In my book I argue that this theory is by far the most rigorous and logical interpretation of the quantum facts. The von Neumann/Wigner interpretation makes quantum mechanics an inherently dualistic theory - that is, it requires the existence and action of a non-physical mind - and the several respected academic physicists that I quote in support of this interpretation do not seem to be "suppressing hysterical laughter."

Carrying on in his tendentious fashion, Gerry writes "The same tired old and discredited arguments are used." At no point does he try to show how my arguments are "discredited." Readers of my book will know that the second section is devoted to discrediting "tired old" materialist explanations of the NDE, such as oxygen deprivation, excessive carbon dioxide, temporal lobe seizures, and so forth.

Gerry writes:

"At K2824, a sentence states that patients can `sometimes elect to undergo cardioversion,...' What nonsense! The cardiologist determines which treatment is the best for the patient. After all, that is his/her expertise."

That section in my book discusses research by cardiologist Michael Sabom. My cardiologist friends tell me that cardioversion is usually an elective procedure, to be delivered mostly for rhythmic disturbances of the heart that are not life threatening, such as atrial fibrillation, or ventricular tachycardia. The patients need a short-working anaesthesia because the electric shock is very painful. Except in emergency situations, it most certainly requires patient consent, and in that ordinary sense, it is indeed "elective."

Gerry writes:

"At K3873 is a strange sentence written by Pim van Lommel, a cardiologist. The man of the `missing dentures' case was discharged from hospital after having been resuscitated from a cardiac arrest caused by a myocardial infarction. Here we read the cardiologically nonsensical sentence: `4 weeks later he left the hospital as a healthy man.' A person who has had a large myocardial infarction has a scarred and damaged heart. The reason for such a heart infarct is coronary artery disease, and the fact that this man had an infarct and died two years after admission is proof that this was very likely the cause. So this man was far from healthy at discharge. A very curious statement for a cardiologist to make."

If Gerry had carefully this section, he would know that this "strange sentence" was not a statement by van Lommel, but rather was part of a quote - translated from Dutch - by the nurse on duty that night. The quote appeared in an article written by van Lommel.

Regarding the famous case of the missing dentures, Gerry tells us that "I wrote an extensive article on this very subject published in the Summer 2010 "Journal of Near-death Studies." True, but what he does not tell us it that the points in his article were easily and clearly refuted by Rudolf Smit and Titus Rivas, in the very same issue of the Journal of Near-Death Studies.

Gerry writes:

"K4463, relates the end of the story of the well-known deathbed vision of a woman dying in the Mother's Hospital, London, England during 1926. ... This woman was dying of heart failure. ... And then Chris Carter tells us something really surprising; `Apparently the young woman "saw" something she found so appealing that she was willing to give up her life and her own baby!'. Really... So it appears this woman had the choice of not dying. Interesting .... Mind over matter, miraculous cure of your own heart failure! Please don't tell the patients in my hospital that they can choose not to die or be sick, otherwise I'll be out of work!"

It should be clear from an unbiased reading of this account that nowhere is it implied that this young woman died by choice. Merely, she was eagerly willing to accept her fate. I am frankly astonished that Gerry does not understand the difference between acceptance and choice.

Gerry writes:

"Then we come to the well known Pam Reynolds case. ... Carter, among others talks about the impossibility of hearing when the 100 dB clicks were administered ... He quite correctly states that Pam Reynolds made absolutely no mention of hearing these clicks. But just as many others before him, Carter ignores the basic stimulus parameters of the clicking sounds, as well as the nature of the consequent auditory evoked response signal (which facts actually reveal how she could hear sounds). Instead he, as have many others have before him, seems to liken this sound to a continuous 100 dB sound such as music. But these clicks are not the same as music, and the report of Pam Reynolds clearly tells us she could hear. She awoke to the sound of a "natural D" (K3930). Pam was a musician, and many such persons have natural pitch. ... This fact together with the stimulus parameters reveals how she could hear the sounds of speech etc."

Gerry's attempt to dismiss this case is truly desperate. During the operation not only was Pam under heavy anesthetic, but her eyes were taped shut and her ears were blocked by small molded speakers. The speakers continuously played 100 decibel clicks into her ears at a rate of 11.3 per second (100 decibels is about the level a symphony orchestra plays at full volume). As long as Pam's brain stem was still functioning, these clicks would evoke sharp spikes on the electrogram.

Ordinary conversation is at around 60 decibels, and the 100 decibel clicks were 10,000 times more intense than that. In her testimony, Pam neither mentions hearing loud clicks nor struggling to hear through them.

Pam's neurosurgeon Dr. Robert Spetzler added this testimony:

"At that stage in the operation nobody can observe, hear in that state. And I find it inconceivable that the normal senses, such as hearing, let alone the fact that she had clicking modules in each ear, that there was any way for her to hear through normal auditory pathways."

However, Gerry tries to convince us that of course she could hear; he writes "the report of Pam Reynolds clearly tells us she could hear. She awoke to the sound of a "natural D" (K3930). Pam was a musician, and many such persons have natural pitch. ... This fact together with the stimulus parameters reveals how she could hear the sounds of speech etc."

What he does not mention is that Pam's experience of hearing and seeing began as she felt herself leaving her body:

"The next thing I recall was the sound: It was a natural D. As I listened to the sound, I felt it was pulling me out of the top of my head. The further out of my body I got, the more clear the tone became. I had the impression it was like a road, a frequency that you go on. . . . I remember seeing several things in the operating room when I was looking down. It was the most aware that I think I have ever been in my entire life. . . . I was metaphorically sitting on Dr Spetzler's shoulder. It wasn't like normal vision. It was brighter and more focused and clearer than normal vision. . . . There was so much in the operating room that I didn't recognize, and so many people."

Her detailed report of conversation and observed activity in the operating theatre was later verified as accurate by members of the operating team.

At last, we come to Gerry's final point:

"Then a last bit of nit-picking ... A skeptic with even a basic knowledge of body structure and function also rejects belief in telepathy and clairvoyance. These are paranormal sensory abilities which the experiences of the blind, the deaf, and gambling casinos teach us simply do not exist."

Let us first deal with Gerry's remark that "A skeptic with even a basic knowledge of body structure and function also rejects belief in telepathy and clairvoyance." Well, two surveys of over 500 scientists in one case and over 1,000 in another were made in the 1970's. Both surveys found that the majority of respondents considered ESP "an established fact" or "a likely possibility": 56% in one and 67% in the other. (Evans, 1973; Wagner and Mary Monet, 1979. Note that in the former study only 3% of natural scientists considered ESP "an impossibility", compared to 34% of psychologists.)

But his final point is more relevant to my first book, which will be re-released in Spring 2012 with a new publisher under the new title Science and Heresy (publisher chose to rename it, I did not). Suffice to say here that abilities such as telepathy and clairvoyance are not only reported in anecdotal accounts from virtually all cultures in recorded history, but their existence has been established in repeatable experiments conducted in laboratories all over the developed world over the past 100 years. In my book I even mention several academic skeptics conceding that the experimental evidence was already convincing by 1950.

Skeptics of psychokenesis are fond of pointing out that there are well-established laboratories for testing PK in Reno, Las Vegas, and Monte Carlo. So, could PK be used to beat the odds in the casinos? Not likely. The PK effects observed in the laboratories are simply far too weak. Physicist Nick Herbert (1993, pp. 195-8) has calculated that the odds in favor of the house on even the most favorable casino games are about 100 times larger than most of the deviations from chance observed in the PK experiments. Even the most gifted micro-PK subjects do not even come close to displaying results that would allow them to consistently beat the house.

Regarding the experiences of the blind and the deaf: whether or not the blind and the deaf have greater telepathic abilities than the unimpaired is an empirical matter. As such, the issue can only be settled by experiment and observation, and not by a priori arguments. At this time there have been no experiments to test this matter so the question remains unanswered.

Conclusion

Since writing this reply, I have since learned that "Gerry" is in fact Gerald Woerlee, fanatical materialist and militant atheist, author of the book The Unholy Legacy of Abraham.

Why are there so many "skeptics" such as Gerald Woerlee eager to debunk not just reports of psychic phenomena, but also phenomena such as the near death experience?

As I discuss in my first book Science and Heresy, this militant opposition is something peculiar to Western societies, and it is basically due to the historical conflict in the West between secular and religious members of society.

Genuine skepticism plays an important role in science; but genuine skepticism involves the suspension of belief, not the refusal of belief. So, individuals such as Woerlee are not genuine skeptics, but rather pseudo-skeptics strenuously defending the theory of materialism from the data which refute it. As Karl Popper stressed, science progresses with the refutation of theories; it follows from this that defending a theory by strenuously denying the data which refute it must be one of the defining characteristics of pseudo-science.

Essentially, as I argued in my first book, this debate is not primarily about evidence. Rather, the debunkers and deniers are defending an out-moded world view in which psychic phenomena and out-of-body experiences are simply not allowed to exist. It is essential to realize that most of the deniers and phony-skeptics are militant atheists and secular humanists. For various reasons, these people have an ideological agenda which is anti-religious and anti-superstitious. One of the main pillars of their opposition to religion and superstition is the doctrine of materialism: that is, the doctrine that all events have a physical cause, and that the brain therefore produces the mind. If they conceded the existence of psychic abilities, and of the NDE as a genuine separation of mind from body, then this pillar of their opposition to religion would crumble. Hence, their dogmatic denial of the evidence that proves materialism false.

When I wrote the first edition of my book Science and the Near Death Experience I had never heard of Woerlee. However, in the second edition of my book - due out soon - I have added a section entirely devoted to Woerlee's criticisms of the dentures case mentioned earlier. Ironically, Woerlee's determined debunking of this case has made this case even more impressive. For if it were not for his strident opposition, then certain medical facts concerning this case may never have been published, medical facts that reveal the extreme implausibility of any materialistic explanation.

I am glad that Woerlee did not like the first edition of my book. He will like the second edition even less.

Chris Carter

References

Carter, Chris (2010). "Persistent Denial: a Century of Denying the Evidence". In Debating Psychic Experience, edited by Stan Krippner and Harris Friedman. New York: Preager Publishing.

Evans, Christopher, 1973. "Parapsychology-what the questionnaire revealed", New Scientist, 25, January 1973, page 209.

Herbert, Nick, 1993. Elemental Mind: Human Consciousness and the New Physics. New York: Penguin
Books.

Nahm, Michael (2009). "Terminal Lucidity in People with Mental Illness and other Mental Disability." Journal of Near-Death Studies, 28 (2), 47-61.

Smit, R. H. (2008). "Corroboration of the dentures anecdote involving veridical perception in a near-death experience." Journal of Near-Death Studies, 27, 47-61.

Smit, R. H. and Rivas, T. (2010). "Rejoinder to `Response to Corroboration of the dentures anecdote involving veridical perception in a near-death experience.'" Journal of Near-Death Studies, 28 (4), 193-205.
TG. (2008). "Commentaar op Woerlee door A-verpleegkundige TG [Commentary on Woerlee by registered nurse TG]." Terugkeer, 19(4), 8.

Wagner, Mahlon, and Mary Monet, 1979. "Attitudes of College Professors Toward Extra-Sensory Perception," Zetetic Scholar, 1979, 5, pages 7-16.

Whitehead, C. 2004. Everything I Believe Might Be a Delusion. Whoa! Tucson 2004: Ten years on, and are we any nearer to a Science of Consciousness? Journal of Consciousness Studies 11 (12), 2004, 68-88.

Woerlee, G. M. (2004). "Cardiac arrest and near-death experiences." Journal of Near-Death Studies, 22, 235-249.

Woerlee, G. M. (2010). "Response to `Corroboration of the dentures anecdote involving veridical perception in a near-death experience.'" Journal of Near-Death Studies, 28 (4), 181-191.

Woerlee's final reply:

Thank you for the extensive response to my criticism of your book. I find the answers interesting but revealing of the same "will to believe" as revealed in the book under discussion. Some points do require a reply.

1. The article of Smit and Rivas in the Summer 2010 edition of the JNDS was in no way an adequate reply to my analysis of the article in the same edition of the JNDS. It was extremely poorly argued, ignoring pertinent facts stated by the male nurse. They even begin by explicitly ignoring the technical medical aspects of the event as too technical. They also ignored the fact that the male nurse also stated that some people recovered consciousness during cardiac massage. I refer you to the English translation of the manuscript at the Merkawah website at: http://www.merkawah.nl/images/stories/trnursetg.pdf . Read my article carefully, as well as that of Smit and Rivas, compare it with the facts in the transcript, and you will find my article explains the facts of the case better. This was even implicitly admitted by the male nurse in his commentary, where he stated that this case taught him that an apparently unconscious person may be conscious. This is no news to anesthesiologists who always take this possibility into account.

2. As regard the Pam Reynolds case. I have an extensive web page on this matter, and have published articles in 2004 and 2005 clearly revealing her to have simply been aware during anesthesia. That other opinions persist can only be attributed to a lack of knowledge of the drugs used during general anesthesia, the effects of general anesthesia, and the manifestations of awareness during this state. For those interested, I have an extensive website devoted to matters such as the various types of awareness during general anesthesia at:
http://anesthesiaweb.org/awareness.php
This brings us to the matter of the deafening 100 dB clicking sounds. I have half finished an article on this very matter. This article uses known and proven neurophysiology to clearly demonstrate how Pam Reynolds was able to hear these sounds, music and conversations. The ideas of

3. As to the matter of OBEs, these are the subject of considerable serious neurophysiological research. THey are not due to separation of some immaterial conscious mind from the body.

4. Paranormal abilities. I clearly disposed of the reality of these phenomena in two books: "Mortal Minds" and "The Unholy Legacy of Abraham". As mentioned earlier. The roulette wheel in casinos is proof neither PK or other psi abilities exist. Casinos have data from untold billions of turns of the wheel. In Nevada, they are obliged to balance these wheels, and they do this, because they earn money from honest wheels. And their earnings are precisely what chance predicts, and the numbers of times the wheel lands on a "0" or a "00" is also what chance predict. The fact that many scientists propose an open mindedness or actual belief in PSI abilities is a manifestation of ignorance to which they are just as prone as all others. To say that most scientists who know little of how PSI is studied, believe in the reality of PSI, is much like saying 100,000 lemmings can't be wrong.

5. Hypoxia is not the only cause of NDEs. In fact is is only one of them, true the most common cause, but still only one of several ultimately resulting in the diffusely defined syndrome called the NDE. If interested I have an extensive teaching page on the subjective and objective effects of hypoxia: http://anesthesiaweb.org/hypoxia.php

6. Other matters such as the study of consciousness and quantum mechanics are such lengthy and exhaustive subjects that these can be left to the judgement of future texts. But my opinions remain unchanged.

7. I will be interested in your comments on my work in the revised edition of your book. Criticism is an enjoyable tool aiding my studies, and greatly appreciated by me. It reveals weaknesses in arguments, and generates new insights. I hope you will be as pleased with my forthcoming book "Narcothymia" in which I clearly demonstrate that deathbed experiences, OBEs and NDEs are proof that consciousness and mind are products of brain function, and not properties of a separable immaterial conscious mind.

References:
Woerlee, G.M. (2004). Pam Reynolds: Ein Nahtodeserlebnis aus der Sicht eines Anästhesisten. Skeptiker, 4, 144-150.
Woerlee, G.M. (2005a). An Anaesthesiologist examines the Pam Reynolds story; Part 1: Background considerations. The Skeptic, 18, 14-17.
Woerlee, G.M. (2005b). An Anaesthesiologist Examines the Pam Reynolds Story; Part 2: The Experience. The Skeptic, 18, 16-20.

Friday, May 6, 2011

Skeptic Ray Hyman on the lack of scientific replicability of parapsychology and the reply by Chris Carter

Chris Carter

Ray Hyman

In the book Debating Psychic Experience, professional skeptic of parapsychology, professor Ray Hyman, wrote his lastest skeptical reflections on the current state of scientific parapsychology.

I will limit this post to one of Hyman's main objections and criticisms of parapsychology (which he considers the Aquiles' heel of this discipline): The lack of replicability of the evidence for psi.

It's well known that parapsychologists have argued that meta-analyses provide valid scientific replication of psi phenomena. Hyman directly disputes this view.

In his essays titled Parapsychology’s Achilles Heel: Persistent Inconsistency, Hyman wrote:

A meta-analysis is basically an exploratory rather than a confirmatory procedure. The notion of replication (or reproduction) of an experiment in the regular sciences is a prospective (or predictive) one. A successful replication is one that achieves essentially the same result that was predicted on the basis of a previously conducted experiment. The parapsychologists who try to justify the replicability of psi results with meta-analysis are using a retrospective notion. They are arguing for successful replication if a set of already completed experiments show evidence of similar effect sizes whose combined average is significantly different from chance. Replicability implies the ability to predict successfully from the results of a meta-analysis to a new set of independent data. This is where parapsychological evidence falls woefully short. (p.44. Emphasis in blue added).

So, we can construct Hyman's argument like this:

1-Scientific replicability is essentially prospective, i.e. it implies to predict the results of previous experiments to a new set of data which confirms the previous results.

2-Parapsychologists who use meta-analyses as justification of replicability are using a retrospective (not a predictive/prospective) notion.

3-Therefore, the positive results produced by such a meta-analyses done by parapsychologists don't support the claim of scientific replicability.

Hyman's argument is logically valid, so the question is to know if the premises of such argument are true. Premise 1 is correct, so we don't have anything to comment here.

But is premise 2 true? Answering this question is essential to the debate about parapsychology, because Hyman's whole case rests on the truth of this premise 2. If Hyman's premise 2 were true, then his position would be essentially correct, and any rational person would be forced to accept that the evidence for psi lacks replicability in the scientific sense. This would seriously undermine the parapsychology's scientific status.

ONE EXAMPLE USED BY HYMAN TO SUPPORT PREMISE 2:

In order to support premise 2, Hyman mentions the following example:

Consider the parapsychological claims that the autoganzfeld experiments successfully replicated the original ganzfeld database (Bem & Honorton, 1994). At least two parapsychologists now agree with my assertion that the autoganzfeld experiments failed to replicate the original ganzfeld data base (Bierman, 2001; Hyman, 1994; Kennedy, 2001). In the original database the average effect size was derived from studies that all used static targets. The autoganzfeld experiments used both static and dynamic (action video clips) targets. Only the dynamic targets produced a significant effect. The results on the static targets were consistent with chance and differed significantly from the results on the static targets in the original data base. (p.49. Emphasis in blue added)

Please, read carefully Hyman's example above. It's absolutely essential that we understand exactly what Hyman's objection is, and interpret it in its best, strongest formulation. No straw man is allowed in such an important question.

Hyman is arguing that the results of the original database of the ganzfeld experiments WERE NOT replicated in the autoganzfeld experiments because:

1-The original ganzfeld database consisted of studies which used only STATIC targets and produce positive results.

2-The autoganzfeld database consisted of both STATIC targets and DYNAMIC targets, but only the dynamic targets produced a significant effect.

3-The results of the autoganzfeld database on the static targets were consistent with chance

4-Therefore, the autoganzfeld experiments didn't produce positive effects in the case of STATIC targes amd hence they failed to replicate the original ganzfeld database (whose positives effects were precisely obtained with the static targets).

Therefore, Hyman's concludes, the autoganzfeld experiments don't provide evidence for replication of the original ganzfeld database.

Again, if Hyman's argument is correct, then his conclusion is valid and true, and any rational person must agree with him. But is Hyman right?

Chris Carter's reply to Ray Hyman:

In his reply to Hyman's argument, specially regarding the example mentioned above, Chris Carter wrote this:

The truth of the matter seems closer to the opposite of what Hyman tells us. The original ganzfeld experiments used quasi-dynamic targets (View Master “slide” reels) in addition to completely static targets. Studies using the View Master reels produced significantly higher hit rates than did studies using single-image targets (50% versus 34%). Meta-analysis of the original data led to the prediction that dynamic targets would show greater results than static targets. (p.158. Emphasis in blue added).

Note that Carter directly denies one of Hyman's factual premises, namely, the claim that the original ganzfeld database used only static targets.

According to Chris, the truth of the matter is that the original ganzfeld database used TWO kinds of targets (not one as Hyman misleadingly says), namely:

1-Quasi-dynamic targets (View Master "slide" reels)

2-Static targets

Keeping this fact in mind is absolutely essential, because it actually destroys Hyman's example.

Why? Because according to Hyman, the original ganzfeld database used only static target and hence it implies that any future replication of this database only will can be attained if future experiments produce positive results using static targets. And given that the autoganzfeld experiments produced results consistent with chance in the case of static targets, the original database wasn't replicated.

But Carter's mention that the original database used both (static AND quasi-dynamic) kinds of targets, leave open the possibility that at least regarding the dynamics targets, the autoganzfeld experiments produced positive results consistent with the original ganzfeld database and hence results which replicate the previous findings on dynamic targets.

And this is what actually happened. As Carter mentions: (regarding the non-static, dynamic targets) "Meta-analysis of the original data led to the prediction that dynamic targets would show greater results than static targets"

So, the autoganzfeld experiments didn't replicated the ganzfeld experiments regarding static targets, but they replicated the ganzfeld experiments regarding the DYNAMIC targets. and therefore, the parapsychologist's claim that the autoganzfeld experiments offer evidence of replication is demostrably true (contrary to Hyman's misleading position).

This point has not been understood by some readers of this book (even by readers sympathetic to the evidence for psi). For example, in Michael Prescott's blog, leading Brazilian psi researcher Vitor Moura posted the following comment regarding Carter's reply to Hyman: "But this clearly was not Hyman's criticism. What he said was that "the results on the static targets were consistent with chance and differed significantly from the results on the static targets in the original data base"

Carter clearly missed the point here. Carter wrote about the dynamic targets, which Hyman admits to be significant. But the criticism of the static targets remains untouched."

Moura clearly missed Carter's (and Hyman's) point here. The debate is not about static targets or dynamic targets, but about the REPLICATON of the evidence for psi.

Certainly as Moura realizes, Hyman accepts that the results about dynamic targets were significant while denying that the original positive evidence of the static targets were replicated. But Hyman concludes from this fact that the autoganzfeld didn't offered any replication at all of the original database, which is false.

Even agreeing with Hyman about the chance results of the static targets, the dynamic targets got positive results, and such positive results WERE PREDICTED by the original database, which is everything what Carter needs in order to refute Hyman's charge of lack of replication.

So, Moura's charge of irrelevance against Carter ("Carter wrote about the dynamic targets") is unjustified, because precisely the positive evidence in the case of dynamic targets replicates the prediction about dynamic targets (not about static targets in which Hyman misleadingly focused his criticisms) done on the grounds of the original database.

As Carter concluded this part of his reply to Hyman: "This prediction was in fact strongly corroborated, as Bem and Honorton (1994) reported:

Dynamic versus static targets. The success of [these studies] raises the question of whether dynamic targets are, in general, more effective than static targets. This possibility was also suggested by earlier meta-analysis, which revealed that studies using multiple-image targets (View Master stereoscopic slide reels) obtained significantly higher hit rates than did studies using singleimage targets. By adding motion and sound, the video clips might be thought of as high-tech versions of the ViewMaster reels. The 10 autoganzfeld studies that randomly sampled from both dynamic and static target pools yielded 164 sessions with dynamic targets and 165 sessions with static targets. As predicted, sessions using dynamic targets yielded significantly more hits that did sessions using static targets (37 percent vs. 27 percent, p < .04). (p. 12)

As Hyman observed, “replicability implies the ability to predict successfully from the results of a meta-analysis to a new set of independent data.” And because of these results, virtually all ganzfeld studies ever since have used only dynamic targets. (p.158)

In conclusion, I agree with Carter and other parapsychologists that this evidence for psi has been scientifically replicated and therefore Hyman's objection that the evidence for psi is not replicable is demostrably fase.

Monday, May 2, 2011

Dean Radin on the positive definitions of PSI and James Alcock's skeptical cavils

Dean Radin

James Alcock

One of the main and repetead objections of James Alcock against parapsychology is the use of "negative" definitions.

In particular, Alcock says: "Not only does parapsychology have difficulty in deciding just what is its legitimate subject matter, but unlike the various domains of mainstream science, it deals exclusively with phenomena that are only negatively defined. Extrasensory perception? It can be said to occur only when all normal sensory communication can be ruled out. Psychokinesis? It is claimed to have occurred when an individual can produce effects on the physical environment without the application of any known force. Such definitions tell us not what the phenomena are, but only what they are not."(Debating Psychic Experience, p. 33. Emphasis in blue added)

When we're examining an objection, we have to try to read it in his best, strongest formulation, in order to avoid straw men, and give the critic the best or more sympathetic reading of his argument (it is not say that it's always easy; many times we unconsciously misrepresent other people's position. But we need to do an effort in order to avoid this).

So, read carefully Alcock's objection. He's saying that psi phenomena are not defined positively, but negatively (i.e. in terms of what they're NOT).

Let's to examine this objection in detail:

1-It's false that psi is defined negatively. In 2006, in his book Entangled Minds, Dean Radin addressed this objection: "As a positive definition, psi is a means by which information can be gained from a distance without the use of ordinary senses"(p.284)

Now, Alcock would reply that it is still a negative definition, because psi is still a phenomenon which occurs when the use of ordinary senses are discarded. In fact, in his reply to Chris Carter (when Carter quoted Radin's above citation in order to refute Alcock's objection), Alcock said: "He [Carter] totally misunderstands my concern about the negative definition of psi, and quotes Dean Radin’s view that psi is positively defined as a means by which information can be gained from a distance without the use of the ordinary senses. This of course means that one must first rule out “the use of the ordinary senses,” which is, of course, the very essence of a negative definition." (p.130)

Alcock clearly missed Carter's and Radin's point. The essence of the definition of psi is not that "one must first rule out" anything. The latter is only a methodological requeriment in order to test psi in the laboratory (not in order to define it).

Alcock, showing again his lack of training in logic, conflates the definition of psi with the methodological procedures used to detect it under controlled conditions.

As Dean Radin mentioned in Entangled Minds: "the "what psi isn't" definition reflects how psi is investigated in the laboratory, not what's thought to be"(284).

Alcock clearly conflates the methods of investigation of a phenomenon (which in case of psi, implies discarding normal sensory perception) with the definition of the phenomenon (which says what the phenomenon IS, regardless of how it is investigated in the particular cases).

The reason why Alcock doesn't understand this difference is because he is ignorant of logic. In any textbook on logic, in the chapters about definitions, you will never found that definitions of an object are identical to the ways to test the existence of such object.

So, I don't think that Alcock is being dishonest in his criticism. I do think his criticism is fully rooted in his sound ignorance of logic and how to define a construct.

In fact, look carefully at Alcock's definition of extrasensory perception given above: "Extrasensory perception? It can be said to occur only when all normal sensory communication can be ruled out."

Ruling out normal sensory communication is needed to KNOW the occurrence of ESP under experimental laboratory conditions, not to define ESP. In fact, if ESP exists, it could occur even in cases where we have not idea of such occurrence, and outside of laboratory conditions. In other words, if ESP exists (as an ontologically real fact), it is independent of the methods used in order to know it (which is an epistemological problem, not an ontological one).

Alcock defines ESP not in terms of what it is supposed to be (ontologically = as a putative objective fact in reality), but in terms of how we KNOW that such ESP has occured (which is an epistemological and methodological question). He conflates methodology of psi research (which implies excluding and ruling out certain factors in order to ascertain the existence of ESP in the laboratory) with the definition of ESP in ontologically terms (which positively asserts what ESP is supposed to BE regardless of the methodological controls used to test its putative existence).

So, it's unlikely that Alcock will recant of such objection. His objection is based on a studied ignorance of the distinction between ontology and methodology, and specially of the different kinds of definitions (e.g. essential definitions and operationalist definitions).

The only remedy to this is a deeper knowledge of logic and philosophy.

2-But let's assume, for the argument's sake, that psi is defined purely in negative terms, which is the problem with it? Why is it an objection against parapsychology? Which is exactly what is supposed to follow from this?

As Radin wrote in his reply to Alcock: "Even if this assertion were true, so what? Negative definitions are common in many disciplines, ranging from physics, where concepts like dark energy and matter are defined by what they are not, to psychology, where concepts like inattentional blindness, implicit cognition, and unconscious processing are defined by contrast to conscious awareness, i.e., to what is not conscious. (Debating Psychic Experience, p.119)

Look at wikipedia for scientific definitions of many scientific facts in which the definitions are clearly negative ones:

-Spontaneous remission: "The spontaneous regression and remission from cancer was defined by Everson and Cole in their 1966 book [1]: "The partial or complete disappearance of a malignant tumour in the absence of all treatment, or in the presence of therapy which is considered inadequate to exert significant influence on neoplastic disease."" (emphasis in blue added)

Note that in order to call a healing of cancer as a "spontaneous remission" according to the above definition, you need to rule out the use of "all treatment". And that ruling out is, according to Alcock, the "very essence of a negative definition". So, the scientific definition of spontaneous remission of cancer is demostrably a negative definition.

Is Alcock (and his skeptical fellows) going to challenge that scientific definition of spontaneous remision on the grounds of being a negative definition?

-Unconscious processes: "Unlike in the psychoanalytic research tradition that uses the terms "unconscious", in the cognitive tradition, the processes that are not mediated by conscious awareness are sometimes referred to as "nonconscious"... Specifically, the process is non-conscious when even highly motivated individuals fail to report it, and few theoretical assumptions are made about the process"

Is the psychologist Alcock going to challenge scientific concepts like the above ones, because they're "negatively" defined?

Even concepts beloved by "skeptics", like scientific naturalism or metaphysical naturalism are defined negatively. According to infidels.org, naturalism is defined like this: "The hypothesis that the natural world is a closed system, which means that nothing that is not part of the natural world affects it... naturalism implies that are no supernatural entities- including God"

So, the view that nature is a closed system (essential to naturalism) means that NO entities outside of this system will be causally efficacious in that system. In other words, EXTRA or SUPER natural entities can NOT affect the natural world. And this implies that causally active on nature entities (like God, minds, spirits, etc.) DON'T exist. So, naturalism implies atheism (=the negation of theism).

Would Alcock criticize the infidels.org explicit definition of naturalism as a anti-scientific or pseudo-scientific definition? Is the "hypothesis" of naturalism a wrong one, because it's defined negatively (i.e in terms of which it discards or rules out, namely God and other extra-natural entities with causally active powers?).

Obviously not. Alcock's objection against parapsychology is a mere cavil, rooted in his ignorance of logic and in his personal prejudices against psi research (prejudices which are direct and necessary consequences of his ideological commitment to the negatively defined metaphysical naturalism and atheism).

3-Moreover and finally, Radin also offered in his reply explicit positive definitions of particular kinds of psi phenomena: "In any case, a positive definition of telepathy is easy to state: “A means of communication between people who are isolated by distance or shielding.” Likewise, precognition may be defined as “a means of perception through time.” Psychokinesis as “mind/matter interactions.” And so on." (emphasis in blue added).

Such positive definitions should settle the question once and for all, and prevent skeptics of using this cavil again.

Why does Alcock keep repeating his cavil about negative definitions of psi as an objection to parapsychology, when POSITIVE definitions are available and have been explicitly mentioned? Is Alcock being objective in his criticisms? Is it a valid criticism or objection against parapsychology which is unanswered or unanswarable by psi researchers? Obviously not, the criticism is invalid, irrelevant, based on injustifiable double standards and demostrably false.

So, the next time that you see a professional skeptic repeating the same objection about "negative definitions", you'll know you're dealing with a person with a personal ideological agenda against parapasychology, not an objective and reliable researcher.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Philosopher Stephen E. Braude Lecture on Ted Serios






Stephen E. Braude is Professor of Philosophy and Chair of the Department at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Scientific Exploration.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Chris Carter refutes Richard Wiseman's latest exercise in psi debunking

Chris Carter


Richard Wiseman


Richard Wiseman, a professional debunker of parapsychology, who forced by the evidence has made some important concessions in favor to psi research, like explicitly conceding that the evidence for ESP meets the rigurous standards of mainstream science, has recently published a critique of parapsychology, which we can call Wiseman's lastest debunking exercise.

Well, Chris Carter, author of two must read books (Parapsychology and the Skeptics and, more recently, Science and Near-Death Experience, which is probably the best book on NDEs ever written) has written an detailed refutation of Wiseman's lastest debunking of psi research.

You can read Carter's critical paper in this link.

Monday, May 3, 2010

What Gorilla?: Why Some Can't See Psychic Phenomena by Dean Radin, PhD.


What Gorilla?: Why Some Can't See Psychic Phenomena by Dean Radin, PhD.

Imagine you're watching a basketball game. Your favorite team is wearing white and the other team is in black. In the midst of the action, someone in a dark gorilla suit calmly walks to the center of the court, waves to the crowd, then walks off the court. Do you think you would notice this peculiar event? Most people might say yes. Most people would be wrong.

Our perceptual system unconsciously filters out the vast majority of information available to us. Because of this filtering process, we actually experience only a tiny trickle of information, by some estimates a trillionth of what is actually out there. And yet from that trickle our minds construct what we expect to see. So when we pay attention to our favorite white-shirted basketball team, the likelihood of clearly seeing darker objects moving about is substantially reduced. That includes even obvious objects, like gorillas. Psychologists call this phenomenon "inattentional blindness," and it's just one of many ways in which our prior beliefs, interests and expectations shape the way we perceive the world and cause us to overlook the obvious.

Because of these blind spots, some common aspects of human experience literally cannot be seen by those who've spent decades embedded within the Western scientific worldview. That worldview, like any set of cultural beliefs inculcated from childhood, acts like the blinders they put on skittish horses to keep them calm. Between the blinders we see with exceptional clarity, but seeing beyond the blinders is not only exceedingly difficult, after a while it's easy to forget that your vision is restricted.

An important class of human experience that these blinders exclude is psychic phenomena, those commonly reported spooky experiences, such as telepathy and clairvoyance, that suggest we are deeply interconnected in ways that transcend the ordinary senses and our everyday notions of space and time.

Exclusion of these phenomena creates a Catch 22: Human experiences credibly reported throughout history, across all cultures, and at all educational levels, repeatedly tell us that psychic phenomena exist. But Big Science -- especially as portrayed in prominent newspapers and popular magazines like Scientific American -- says it doesn't.

Well then, is this gorilla in the basketball game, or not? One way to find out is to study the question using the highly effective tools of science while leaving the worldview assumptions behind. That way we can study the question without prejudice, like watching a basketball game without preferring either the white or black team. Neutral observers are much more likely to spot a gorilla, if one is indeed present.

This form of investigation has been going on for over a century, and despite official denials, the jury is in: Some psychic phenomena do exist. But like blindingly obvious gorillas, not everyone can see them. (Actually, like the majority of the general public, many scientists do have these experiences, but as in the parable of the Emperor's New Clothes, fledgling science students quickly learn in college that it is not politically expedient to talk about it.)

Here's an example of not seeing. In the July/August 2008 issue of the Skeptical Inquirer (the Playboy of the enthusiastic debunker), neuroscientist Amir Raz and psychologist Ray Hyman describe their impressions of an invitation-only scientific meeting held on "anomalous cognition" at the University of British Columbia (UBC) in July 2007. Anomalous cognition is a neutral euphemism for psychic or "psi" phenomena, one that avoids the connotation of séances and ghostbusting associated with the touchy p-words. I was a co-organizer of the UBC meeting. Sixty prominent scientists and physicians were invited to the meeting, including a couple of Nobel Laureates, representing a variety of disciplines and perspectives.

Not surprisingly, given the skeptical focus of the magazine in which their essays appeared, Raz and Hyman both concluded that they were not persuaded by what they heard at the meeting, that nothing interesting was going on, and that the scientific pursuit of anomalous cognition is akin to a misguided search for the Tooth Fairy (Raz's term).

Now, let me preface what I'm about to say by first noting that I respect Raz's and Hyman's opinions and I'm glad that they attended the UBC meeting. There is always room for critical debate in science; as President Dubya once said in another context, "Bring it on." But what I am concerned about is that sometimes holding a fruitful debate stalls before it can get off the ground because one side regards the topic as fantasy. And so to make a point I'll be ruthless in pointing out problems with these two authors' opinions.

One of Raz's principal complaints was that he would "be curious to see compelling scientific demonstrations of psi (i.e., a string of multiple successful experiments by several independent investigators producing lawful and replicable outcomes). Alas, I have found none to date."

When I first read that statement I felt like I increasingly do these days when driving past a gas station. What did that sign say? A gallon of gas costs what? Didn't we discuss several classes of repeatable experiments at the UBC meeting? For example, I presented an overview of "presentiment" experiments, an unconscious precognitive effect that has been independently and successfully replicated numerous times. (Nearly all of the 20 experiments I'm aware of to date have produced results in the predicted direction, and of those 10 were independently statistically significant.)

And among researchers who have closely studied the psi literature, the vast majority have little doubt that something interesting is going on, something not easily attributable to chance or to any known conventional artifacts. These effects are in principle no more difficult to demonstrate than the efficacy of new pharmaceutical drugs or medical procedures. Such effects tend to be small in magnitude, they are highly reactive to the psychosocial context and other environmental factors, and they take substantial amounts of careful data collection to overcome the statistical noise generated by dozens of poorly understood interactive factors. But they are real, and they are repeatable in the laboratory.

Real and repeatable, and yet what Raz meant by a "compelling" demonstration does not exist for him, at least not yet. When one regards evidence from a position where the claimed phenomenon is viewed as exceedingly unlikely, like a gorilla on a basketball court, then the evidence required to change one's mind must be super-powerful. Not merely a string of successful experiments by independent investigators, as Raz calls for, but effects that are robust enough to be easily repeatable by anyone, anywhere, any time, and highly stable over long periods of time. And better yet, the effect should be predicted by a theory that doesn't do much violence to orthodox dogma about how the world works.

This is what I call the "UFO landing on the White House lawn" type of evidence. Alas, such robust evidence is rarely available when dealing with phenomena at the bleeding edge of the known. And it's true that the evidence for psi today does not quite achieve the status of a Special News Bulletin interrupting the season finale of Lost by reporting a UFO landing on the White House lawn (would anyone believe such a story, even if it were true?). Instead, the evidence available today for psi is more like a formation of UFOs repeatedly flying over the US Capitol, captured on film and spotted simultaneously by radar, jet pilots, and hundreds of witnesses on the ground. Well, surely that would convince a few people.

Oh, wait. Such a UFO sighting actually did occur in Washington DC in 1952. All the major newspapers carried the story. But who remembers that today?

Perhaps Ray Hyman does. Hyman earned his PhD in 1953 at John Hopkins University, near Washington DC. Today, Hyman is a retired psychology professor who has been one of the premier academic critics of parapsychology for over 50 years. In his essay in Skeptical Inquirer, his major complaint was the lack of easy repeatability of psi effects. To support his claim he cited "a psi proponent reported a meta-analysis of [a class of telepathy experiments] with an average effect size that significantly differed from zero with odds of more than a trillion to one while another meta-analysis ... concluded that the average effect size was consistent with zero." (A meta-analysis is a quantitative review of many similar experiments.) He bolstered this assertion by citing a few parapsychologists who have acknowledged difficulties in producing "UFO on the White House lawn" form of evidence. From this viewpoint, he concluded that parapsychology does not deserve serious scientific attention. He's been repeating this opinion for 50 years.

Except there's a small problem. The parapsychologists mentioned by Hyman were expressing well known difficulties in producing robust repeatable effects on demand. But none of them doubt that the preponderance of evidence strongly indicates the presence of genuine anomalies. Hyman's selective reporting is akin to dismissing as worthless a clearly visible formation of UFOs flying over the US Capitol, because of a stubborn insistence that the only acceptable data are UFOs landing on the White House lawn precisely at high noon, followed by alien pilots emerging from their crafts, offering tea and biscuits to the President and Vice President of the United States, and then soberly shooting the VP in the face with a projectile weapon (due to regarding that act as a sign of diplomatic friendship, having unfortunately misinterpreted a news story regarding the Vice President's shooting his friend in the face -- but I digress).

There's another problem, one more substantial. Hyman's damning denouement was that not all meta-analyses of telepathy experiments were judged to be positive. By mentioning the meta-analysis where the "average effect size was consistent with zero," he reinforced his contention that telepathy experiments are slippery and unrepeatable, and not to be trusted. The study he cited appeared in a 1999 publication by British psychologists Julie Milton from the University of Edinburgh and Richard Wiseman from the University of Hertfordshire. They analyzed a selected subset of telepathy experiments, ended up with a positive but statistically non-significant result, and then quite reasonably concluded that nothing interesting was going on. Well, as I said, there's always room for debate. Except when conclusions are based on a mistake. It turns out that their analysis was miscalculated.

Jessica Utts, a professor of statistics at the University of California at Irvine, explained at the UBC meeting that Milton and Wiseman had employed a technique that underestimated the actual telepathy effect. If they had used the same (simpler and more powerful) technique employed in all of the other published telepathy meta-analyses, they would have reached the same conclusion that everyone else did: There is indeed significant positive and repeatable evidence for telepathy obtained under controlled laboratory conditions.

Hyman was in the audience during Utts' presentation. I don't know why he choose to ignore her analysis, although if he had acknowledged it that would have neutralized his own arguments. So perhaps its exclusion is not so puzzling.

Speculations aside, one thing is crystal clear: It can take a White House lawn party to overcome one's long-held beliefs, so if nothing obviously wrong can be found in a reported experiment, skeptics will still worry if the experiment was conducted by "believers," because they imagine that believers would not be as rigorously careful as "non-believers." Indeed, fervent skeptics are quite vocal in asserting that non-believers cannot get the same results in these experiments. Unfortunately, the fact is that skeptics hardly ever conduct these studies, and on the scant occasions when they do, they rarely publish them in sufficient detail to evaluate the results. So we really don't know whether the suspicion is justified or not.

That is, until recently. In 2005 two keenly skeptical psychologists, Edward Delgado-Romero from the University of Georgia and George Howard from the University of Notre Dame, conducted the same type of telepathy experiment under consideration here. To their chagrin, they not only obtained a significant positive outcome after conducting a series of eight studies, but their results were perfectly in alignment with the earlier meta-analytic estimates. That is, based on thousands of previous trials, it is possible to estimate the "hit rate" one should get when running a standard telepathy experiment. Delgado-Romero and Howards obtained exactly that value. To their credit, they published their results.

But their article also included an astounding twist: They ended up rejecting their own experimental evidence based on a single additional study they conducted, which they based on an ad hoc, untested design they proposed, and which ultimately resulted in a statistically significant negative outcome! Strong negative outcomes are just as important statistically speaking, and just as unlikely to occur by chance, as strong positive outcomes. Both indicate that something interesting is going on.

Another way of illustrating the invisibility of gorillas is by revealing an asymmetry in how psi experiments are reported in newspapers. In January 2008, newspapers around the world hailed the first conclusive test for telepathy conducted by two Harvard University researchers. According to the Boston Globe: "Brain scan tests fail to support validity of ESP. Research on parapsychology is largely taboo in academia, but two Harvard scientists recently set out to settle, once and for all, the age-old question: Is extrasensory perception, or ESP, real? Their sophisticated experiment answers: No, at least, not as far as they can tell using high-tech brain scanners to detect neural evidence of it."

Finally. Once and for all. A sophisticated magnetic resonance imaging brainscanner was used (technically, an fMRI), for the first time, to answer this age-old question. The high-tech "no" answer seems conclusive unless you read the actual article, which reported that one of 16 tests conducted showed a stupendously significant outcome exactly in alignment with what was predicted if psi were real. But the authors then took pains to explain why that result was probably an artifact, and so the newspapers didn't mention that one intriguing outcome. (It also makes one question why they employed an experimental design which allowed positive results to be explained away so easily.)

But the study was conducted at Harvard, for goodness sake, so surely that's the last word on ESP. After all, for the first time ever Harvard scientists used one of those expensive and mysterious fMRI brainscanners to peer deep inside the brain, and they didn't see any psi in there. End of story, no?

Well, no. Was this really the first psi study conducted using an fMRI? No, it wasn't even the second such study. Or the third. Or fourth. Or fifth. It was the sixth. And all of the earlier experiments, all conducted since 2000, showed significant evidence for psi effects. Somehow the newspapers overlooked this, despite the fact that most of those studies are freely available in an instant via PubMed.gov, the National Institutes of Health massive online bibliography of scientific articles related to health and healing.

I could continue along the same vein ad nauseum when it comes to how scientific evidence for psi is often ignored or distorted beyond recognition. Unfortunately, there are countless other tales of ignoring other invisible gorillas at the frontiers of knowledge. They include serious scientific arguments that global warming is not being caused by human activities, analyses suggesting that HIV does not cause AIDS, repeatable electrochemical-nuclear reactions once known as "cold-fusion," credible reports of UFOs, and so on. All of these ideas encounter strong sociopolitical resistance in academia, so credible counter-arguments are difficult to locate and even more difficult to discuss in scientific forums unless you have a phalanx of beefy bodyguards watching your back. One of the best sources of information about these "frontier" science topics is the Journal of Scientific Exploration, a peer-reviewed multidisciplinary journal published by the Society for Scientific Exploration.

Without belaboring the point, such tales expose a skeleton in the closet of Big Science. From the popular perspective, science is portrayed as a flawlessly rational enterprise, where accumulating evidence slowly but surely overcomes stubborn skepticism. In reality, science is like any other human activity, and as such, emotions always trump reason. There is as least as much pig-headedness and motivated inattention in science as in politics and religion.

Given the non-rational skeleton, will mainstream science ever be prepared to admit that psychic phenomena warrants serious investigation? I believe the answer is yes. Acceptance someday is inevitable. We are dealing with human experiences reported since the dawn of human history, experiences that do not go away in tightly controlled laboratory tests using the most sophisticated experimental tools and designs. So some of these phenomena will eventually become integrated into the mainstream. Exactly when I cannot say. Perhaps one to five decades.

Will this happen because the accumulated data will overwhelm skepticism? Probably not. As Max Planck, the physicist who dreamt up the idea of the "quantum" in quantum mechanics, once wrote, "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it." Some of the 60 participants at the UBC meeting represented that younger generation, and while a handful of the older crowd are certain to remain mulishly skeptical to their deaths, based on the written opinions of many of the participants collected before, during and after the meeting, it was clear that the majority were more open to anomalous cognition after the meeting than they were before. I expect that trend to continue, and then one day a threshold will be crossed, and on that day some of the invisible gorillas in our midst will become a bit easier to see. The very next day no one will remember that this topic was once considered controversial.
 
ban nha mat pho ha noi bán nhà mặt phố hà nội